Analisis Valuasi Saham Bank Digital di Indonesia Menggunakan Model Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) – Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) Sebagai Dasar Keputusan Investasi
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.38035/jafm.v6i6.2959Keywords:
Valuasi Saham, DCF–FCFE, Bank Digital, Nilai Intrinsik, Keputusan InvestasiAbstract
Valuasi saham merupakan aspek penting dalam pengambilan keputusan investasi, khususnya pada sektor perbankan digital di Indonesia yang masih berada pada fase pertumbuhan dan memiliki tingkat risiko yang relatif tinggi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis kewajaran harga saham bank digital yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia menggunakan pendekatan valuasi fundamental Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) berbasis Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) sebagai dasar rekomendasi keputusan investasi. Objek penelitian meliputi enam emiten bank digital, yaitu AMAR.JK, ARTO.JK, BBYB.JK, BBHI.JK, AGRO.JK, dan BBSI.JK. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder berupa laporan keuangan tahunan dan data harga saham terbaru. Analisis dilakukan dengan menghitung FCFE, menentukan tingkat pertumbuhan menggunakan pendekatan Return on Equity (ROE) dan retention ratio, serta menghitung cost of equity menggunakan model Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) dengan beta saham yang diestimasi melalui regresi return mingguan dan disesuaikan menggunakan metode Blume. Nilai intrinsik saham diperoleh dari penjumlahan nilai kini FCFE periode proyeksi lima tahun dan nilai terminal. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa saham AMAR.JK, ARTO.JK, BBYB.JK, dan BBSI.JK berada dalam kondisi undervalued, BBHI.JK berada dalam kondisi overvalued, sedangkan AGRO.JK berada pada kondisi marginal overvalued sehingga lebih tepat dikategorikan sebagai hold. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa pendekatan DCF–FCFE mampu memberikan estimasi nilai fundamental saham bank digital secara komprehensif dan dapat digunakan sebagai dasar pengambilan keputusan investasi yang rasional.
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