Behind the Defeat of Local Incumbents: A Systematic Review of Economic Voting, Patronage, Party Conflict, and Electoral Accountability in Democratic Elections
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.38035/jlph.v6i5.3455Keywords:
Local Incumbent Defeat, Economic Voting, Patronage Politics, Party Conflict, Electoral AccountabilityAbstract
Local elections constitute a crucial arena for democratic accountability because local governments control public services, welfare distribution, public expenditure, bureaucratic appointments, and access to state resources. Yet local incumbents sometimes lose despite possessing the structural advantages of office. This systematic review synthesizes 48 studies identified through Scopus and related bibliographic checking to explain why such defeats occur. Using a mechanism-based qualitative synthesis, the review integrates evidence from studies on economic voting, patronage and clientelism, party organization, candidate selection, opposition coordination, electoral integrity, institutional trust, and democratic alternation. The synthesis shows that local incumbent defeat is rarely caused by a single factor. Economic voting matters when citizens can attribute unemployment, welfare retrenchment, fiscal choices, crisis response, or service delivery to incumbents. Patronage may protect incumbents when networks remain credible and morally legitimate, but it may also generate backlash when voters associate distributive politics with corruption, arrogance, exclusion, or manipulation. Party conflict and candidate selection may weaken incumbents before the general election, especially when nomination rules, factional competition, elite bargaining, or opposition coordination reduce campaign capacity. Ultimately, incumbent defeat becomes democratically meaningful only when electoral institutions are credible, losing actors concede defeat, and transitions preserve governmental continuity. This review provides an integrated framework that treats local incumbent defeat as both an electoral outcome and a governance process.
References
Ayee, J. R. A. (2017). Ghana’s elections of 7 December 2016: A post-mortem. South African Journal of International Affairs, 24(3), 311–330. https://doi.org/10.1080/10220461.2017.1378124
Bartels, L. M. (2013). Political Effects of the Great Recession. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 650(1), 47–76. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716213496054
Bellodi, L., Morelli, M., & Vannoni, M. (2024). A Costly Commitment: Populism, Economic Performance, and the Quality of Bureaucracy. American Journal of Political Science, 68(1), 193–209. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12782
Bennett, D. L., & Long, J. T. (2019). Is it the economic policy, stupid? Economic policy, political parties & the gubernatorial incumbent advantage. European Journal of Political Economy, 58, 118–137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2018.09.006
Bob-Milliar, G. M., & Paller, J. W. (2018). Democratic ruptures and electoral outcomes in Africa: Ghana’s 2016 election. Africa Spectrum, 53(1), 5–35. https://doi.org/10.1177/000203971805300102
Buehler, M., & Nataatmadja, R. (2019). A research agenda for studying legislative incumbent turnover in new democracies, using Indonesia as a case study. South East Asia Research, 27(3), 203–224. https://doi.org/10.1080/0967828X.2019.1642027
Chandler, J., Cumpston, M., Li, T., Page, M. J., & Welch, V. J. H. W. (2019). Cochrane handbook for systematic reviews of interventions. Hoboken: Wiley.
Chen, J. (2022). Representing Chinese Indonesians: Pribumi Discourse and Regional Elections in Post-Reform Indonesia. Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 41(1), 59–87. https://doi.org/10.1177/18681034211036716
Cleary, M. R., & Öztürk, A. (2022). When Does Backsliding Lead to Breakdown? Uncertainty and Opposition Strategies in Democracies at Risk. Perspectives on Politics, 20(1), 205–221. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592720003667
Dettman, S. (2020). Authoritarian innovations and democratic reform in the “New Malaysia.” Democratization, 27(6), 1037–1052. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2019.1705791
Duley, C., & Gai, P. (2024). Electoral Integrity, the Concession of Power, and the Disciplining Role of Protests. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 68(1), 138–165. https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231158055
Farole, S. (2026). The politics of mayoral reselection under centralized candidate nominations in South Africa. Democratization. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2026.2623440
Fashagba, J. Y., & Nwankwor, C. (2020). Legislative turnover in a new democracy: An insight from the nigerian national assembly (1999-2019). Studia Politica, 20(4), 549–568.
Gaughan, A. J. (2021). THE DYNAMICS OF DEMOCRATIC BREAKDOWN: A CASE STUDY OF THE AMERICAN CIVIL WAR. British Journal of American Legal Studies, 11(1), 113–151. https://doi.org/10.2478/bjals-2022-0002
Grant, M. J., & Booth, A. (2009). A typology of reviews: An analysis of 14 review types and associated methodologies. Health Information & Libraries Journal, 26(2), 91–108. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1471-1842.2009.00848.x
Hazis, F. S. (2015). Patronage, power and prowess: Barisan nasional’s equilibrium dominance in east Malaysia. Kajian Malaysia, 33(2), 1–24.
Healy, A., & Malhotra, N. (2010). Research note: Random events, economic losses, and retrospective voting: Implications for democratic competence. Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 5(2), 193–208. https://doi.org/10.1561/100.00009057
Heinrich, T., & Loftis, M. W. (2019). Democracy Aid and Electoral Accountability. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 63(1), 139–166. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717723962
Hernández, E., & Kriesi, H. (2016). The electoral consequences of the financial and economic crisis in Europe. European Journal of Political Research, 55(2), 203–224. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12122
Johnson, J. W. (2015). Presidential elections and corruption perceptions in Latin America. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 7(1), 111–142. https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802x1500700104
Kerr, N., Krönke, M., & Wahman, M. (2024). Where Are the Sore Losers? Competitive Authoritarianism, Incumbent Defeat, and Electoral Trust in Zambia’s 2021 Election. Public Opinion Quarterly, 88(SI), 608–631. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfae030
Klašnja, M., & Titiunik, R. (2017). The Incumbency Curse: Weak Parties, Term Limits, and Unfulfilled Accountability. American Political Science Review, 111(1), 129–148. Scopus. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055416000575
Kogan, V. (2022). The Politics of Welfare Retrenchment: Evidence from Mass Medicaid Disenrollment in Two States. State Politics and Policy Quarterly, 22(4), 396–417. https://doi.org/10.1017/spq.2022.15
Komarudin, U., Handoko, W., & Hussain, F. (2025). MONEY POLITICS AND VOTER BEHAVIOR: FACTORS BEHIND INCUMBENT DEFEAT IN SUBANG REGENCY’S 2024 REGIONAL ELECTION. Jurnal Hukum Unissula, 41(2), 216–235. https://doi.org/10.26532/jh.v41i2.44163
Konitzer-Smirnov, A. (2005). Serving different masters: Regional executives and accountability in Ukraine and Russia. Europe - Asia Studies, 57(1), 3–33. https://doi.org/10.1080/0966813052000314093
Kwarteng, C. (2018). Piercing the incumbency syndrome: Ghana’s democratic transition in 2017. Round Table, 107(1), 57–66. https://doi.org/10.1080/00358533.2018.1424076
Lockwood, P. (2019). The Buffalo and the Squirrel: Moral authority and the limits of patronage in Kiambu County’s 2017 gubernatorial race. Journal of Eastern African Studies, 13(2), 353–370. https://doi.org/10.1080/17531055.2019.1592332
Lodge, T. (2013). Alternation and leadership succession in African democracies. Irish Studies in International Affairs, 24(1), 21–40. https://doi.org/10.3318/ISIA.2013.24.2
Martin, S., McClean, C. T., & Strom, K. W. (2024). Legislative Resources, Corruption, and Incumbency. British Journal of Political Science, 54(2), 526–535. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123423000108
Millard, F. (2006). Poland’s politics and the travails of transition after 2001: The 2005 elections. Europe - Asia Studies, 58(7), 1007–1031. https://doi.org/10.1080/09668130600926215
Moliki, A. O., Atobatele, A. J., Oladoyin, A. M., & Chukwudi, C. E. (2025). The Impact of Intra-Party Conflict on Internal Democracy in Nigeria’s 2023 General Elections: A Case of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). African Renaissance, 22(1), 11–34. https://doi.org/10.31920/2516-5305/2025/22n1a1
Muharemović, E. (2024). Constrained Choices: How Bosnian Communists Lost Their Party before Losing the Elections. Comparative Southeast European Studies, 72(4), 399–418. https://doi.org/10.1515/soeu-2023-0059
Muirhead, R., & Tulis, J. K. (2020). Will the election of 2020 prove to be the end or a new beginning? Polity, 52(3), 339–354. https://doi.org/10.1086/708945
Ng, J. W. J., Vaithilingam, S., Lee, G. H. Y., & Rangel, G. J. (2022). Life Satisfaction and Incumbent Voting: Examining the Mediating Effect of Trust in Government. Journal of Happiness Studies, 23(6), 2947–2967. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10902-022-00536-z
Okolie, A.-M., Enyiazu, C., & Nnamani, K. E. (2021). Campaign propaganda, electoral outcome and the dynamics of governance in the post-2015 presidential election in Nigeria. Cogent Social Sciences, 7(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2021.1922180
Orey, B. D. (2006). Deracialization or Racialization: The Making of a Black Mayor in Jackson, Mississippi1. Politics and Policy, 34(4), 814–836. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2006.00042.x
Ozpek, B. B., Ozturk, A. E., Dagi, I., & Erkoc, T. E. (2025). Opposition’s paradox of victory: Electoral success and authoritarian retrenchment in Turkey. Southeast European and Black Sea Studies. https://doi.org/10.1080/14683857.2025.2580014
Page, M. J., McKenzie, J. E., Bossuyt, P. M., Boutron, I., Hoffmann, T. C., Mulrow, C. D., Shamseer, L., Tetzlaff, J. M., Akl, E. A., Brennan, S. E., Chou, R., Glanville, J., Grimshaw, J. M., Hróbjartsson, A., Lalu, M. M., Li, T., Loder, E. W., Mayo-Wilson, E., McDonald, S., … Moher, D. (2021). The PRISMA 2020 statement: An updated guideline for reporting systematic reviews. BMJ, n71. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n71
Pora, R., Ibrahim, A. H. H., Lasuhu, B., & Suaib, R. (2018). Elite conflict on power contestation of internal political party. International Journal of Scientific and Technology Research, 7(4), 268–274.
Poteete, A. R. (2019). Electoral competition, clientelism, and responsiveness to fishing communities in Senegal. African Affairs, 118(470), 24–48. https://doi.org/10.1093/afraf/ady037
Rakner, L. (2021). Don’t Touch My Constitution! Civil Society Resistance to Democratic Backsliding in Africa´s Pluralist Regimes. Global Policy, 12(S5), 95–105. https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.12991
Roberts, A. (2008). Hyperaccountability: Economic voting in Central and Eastern Europe. Electoral Studies, 27(3), 533–546. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2008.01.008
Roussias, N., & Ruiz-Rufino, R. (2018). “Tying incumbents’ hands”: The effects of election monitoring on electoral outcomes. Electoral Studies, 54, 116–127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2018.05.005
Rybar, M. (2019). The 2017 regional elections in Slovakia: Soaring independents and recovered opposition in a fragmented political space. Regional and Federal Studies, 29(3), 441–458. https://doi.org/10.1080/13597566.2019.1568247
Schraufnagel, S. (2020). Testing for incumbency advantages in a developing democracy: Elections for local government leaders in indonesia. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 42(2), 200–223. https://doi.org/10.1355/cs42-2c
Scranton, M. E. (1995). Panama’s first post-transition election. Journal of Interamerican Studies & World Affairs, 37(1), 69–100. https://doi.org/10.2307/166217
Sishuwa, S. (2022). ‘The outcome of a historical process set in motion in 1991’: Explaining the failure of incumbency advantage in Zambia’s 2021 election. Journal of Eastern African Studies, 16(4), 659–680. https://doi.org/10.1080/17531055.2022.2236850
Toral, G. (2024). Turnover: How Lame-Duck Governments Disrupt the Bureaucracy and Service Delivery before Leaving Office. Journal of Politics, 86(4), 1348–1367. https://doi.org/10.1086/729961
Van Peski, C. J. (2013). Good cop, bad cop. Security and Human Rights, 24(1), 49–100. https://doi.org/10.1163/18750230-02401008
Warren, S. S. (2022). Democratizing candidate selection: Controlled turnover in Botswana’s Bulela Ditswe primaries. Party Politics, 28(2), 248–260. https://doi.org/10.1177/13540688211041035
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Iyan Maulana Amnum Al Amin, Kushandajani
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish their manuscripts in this journal agree to the following conditions:
- The copyright on each article belongs to the author(s).
- The author acknowledges that the Journal of Law, Poliitic and Humanities (JLPH) has the right to be the first to publish with a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license (Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
- Authors can submit articles separately, arrange for the non-exclusive distribution of manuscripts that have been published in this journal into other versions (e.g., sent to the author's institutional repository, publication into books, etc.), by acknowledging that the manuscript has been published for the first time in the Journal of Law, Poliitic and Humanities (JLPH).
