Design of a Web-Based BOR Prediction System as an Early Warning System for Overcapacity Using Growth Rate and Moving Average Methods
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.38035/dit.v4i2.3900Keywords:
Bed Occupancy Rate, Growth Rate, Moving Average, Mixed Methods, WebAbstract
Bed availability is an important indicator of hospital service quality, as an imbalance between capacity and patient demand may increase the risk of overcapacity and reduce service quality. Capacity management that remains oriented toward historical data also limits a hospital’s ability to anticipate future needs. This study aimed to implement a Bed Occupancy Rate prediction system as an early warning mechanism for evaluating bed-capacity adequacy in subsequent periods. A mixed-methods design with a time-series approach was employed. Quantitative data consisted of 24 months of historical Bed Occupancy Rate records obtained through documentation and analyzed using Growth Rate and Moving Average methods, while qualitative data were obtained through observation and interviews to identify system requirements. The system was developed using the Waterfall model and implemented with PHP Native, MySQL, Bootstrap, and AdminLTE. Features include historical-data management, prediction, Mean Absolute Percentage Error evaluation, dashboard visualization, an Early Warning System, and PDF and Excel reports. The system generated forecasts, displayed occupancy trends, and classified predicted conditions into safe, alert, and critical categories, thereby supporting more proactive and sustainable capacity planning.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Shilvana Mahardika, Irda Sari, Adhita Arif Setyawan
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